Government Shutdown Drama, Part 2
By Doug Steiger, MPP
Government Shutdown Drama, Part 2
By Doug Steiger, MPP
Are you ready if the federal government shut down for weeks in the fall? But, you ask, didn’t we just avoid a shutdown?
We did – but only for the current fiscal year, ending September 30th. Congress still needs to keep the lights on for the next fiscal year. Odds are high for a sequel to that drama, and a long shutdown..
The Structural Tension
Each party faces different challenges in government funding negotiations. That’s not a partisan read, it’s a structural tension inherent in key party differences.
Most years, the key players are able to negotiate a compromise. But, as you may have noticed, this is not most years.
When Republicans run both chambers they face a two-fold challenge in funding the government:
Senate Democrats can filibuster a bill they oppose; and
House conservatives insist on sharp spending cuts.
In Congress, members may have to say “I’ll vote ‘no’ unless I get what I want,” to have leverage. When enough of them do that, the whole process can grind to a halt.
How it Usually Plays Out
A Republican House typically passes appropriations bills at low enough funding levels for the conservatives, which are then stopped by Senate Democrats.
Eventually, a deal is made that raises spending levels so enough Democrats support it to offset the loss of conservative votes, often at the expense of a stable speaker’s gavel.
What’s Different this Time
The advent of DOGE and OMB’s withholding of funding make it difficult for Democrats to agree to a deal along the usual lines.
OMB Director Vought has been clear in his belief that the executive branch is not required to spend the money that Congress appropriates. DOGE has dismantled whole agencies without explicit legal authority.
This development upends the usual dynamic; Democrats become far less willing to provide bridge votes when they can’t be sure the concessions they are extracting are real.
How March Played Out
In March, congressional Democrats were faced with a stark choice; oppose the continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government to seek concessions, risking a government shutdown, or vote for the CR to keep the government open.
When there were no negotiations to be had, Senator Schumer and a few other Senate Democrats supported the CR, fearing the damage from a shutdown.
Wake Me Up, When September Ends
Come September, the same dynamics will likely apply. A CR will be required since the appropriations bills will likely not be finished.1
In a normal year, Senate Democrats would consider agreeing to a CR that does little more than keep the government operating on autopilot. Doing so now would risk empowering DOGE and OMB further, eroding the likelihood of Democratic support.
Absent a bipartisan agreement, House Republicans can send the Senate a CR with lower spending levels, leaving Democrats with the same tough choice as in March.
Signals of a Shutdown Showdown
There’s a good chance that the next time, Senate Democrats will face stronger incentives to filibuster, especially in light of the blowback to the March vote.
Pressure from Democratic voters to oppose the President may also increase even further if Congress enacts large Medicaid and SNAP cuts before October.
Why it Matters for Child Welfare
What would a shutdown mean for child welfare? The good news is that programs with “mandatory” funding, such as Title IV-E foster care and Medicaid, would continue.
But agency staff managing these programs could face furloughs. That’s on top of prior major staff reductions, and would be compounded if they are also supposed to be implementing changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Programs that rely on appropriations, such as CAPTA, would not have federal funding until the shutdown ends. Ordinarily, this means a delay in funding, which can be painful if grants were expected in the fall.2
This year, though, those delays would occur in the context of an Administration already openly exploring the frontiers of their legal authority for unilateral cuts to programs.
That raises the risk that theAdministration might seek to end programs when they are “unfunded” even temporarily. Lawmakers know this and it impacts their negotiations.
If there is a shutdown, it may be an extended one. The Administration may see a shutdown as an opportunity for further cuts, while Democrats will be reluctant to accept any Republican-drafted bill to reopen the government without concessions from the White House.
This means that if the government shuts down on October 1st, it may not reopen until Thanksgiving or later. State and local leaders can plan ahead to avoid a cash crunch.
Ignore past-oriented prognostication that trades clarity for certainty. Assuming that the old dynamics will return is a good way to be surprised by a foreseeable shutdown.
Doug Steiger is a public policy consultant. He served as a Counselor to the HHS Secretary during the Obama Administration and was a Senate staffer for 12 years.