The Wonk Launches Premium
Introducing the Wonk Briefing Room, plus child welfare’s legislative odds, shutdown signals, and CDC turmoil with real stakes for families.
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Child Welfare Wonk– Curated by Founder Zach Laris, with contributions from the Wonk Team.
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Today’s the day; we are thrilled to unveil the Wonk Briefing Room, our premium community for child and family policy intel.
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Premium embodies why I founded Child Welfare Wonk; to serve the people shaping child and family policy who need more than the noise that’s all around us.
With the Wonk Briefing Room, we’re expanding our growing community of savvy leaders who want to write the future of child and family policy, not react to it.
The Weekly Wonk newsletter will continue to bring essential clarity to your inbox each week; it’s the foundation we all need to stay sharp.
The Wonk Briefing Room builds upon it, offering a deeper layer of sharp, strategic analysis — the kind that surfaces signal others miss.
It’s the kind of work you’ve already seen from us:
Robin Ghertner showing that kids in foster care with mental health diagnoses are actually more likely to receive both therapy and medication than peers outside the system — a counterintuitive finding that upends conventional wisdom.
Or Laura Radel dissecting why Title IV-E isn’t a traditional entitlement — and what that means for the future of federal funding.
To mark the launch, we’re giving today’s Premium piece free: Doug Steiger on why a big child welfare bill won’t happen this Congress, and why that makes now the perfect moment to shape the next one.
Don’t forget to sign up for Premium here.
This week we’re pulling back the curtain on a Child Welfare Wonk Premium piece — and offering it for free in its entirety, so you can see the kind of sharp, strategic intelligence subscribers get every week.
Senior Contributor Doug Steiger lays out why big child welfare bills are nearly impossible in this Congress — and why that makes it the perfect time to start shaping the next one.
Shaping the Next Big Child Welfare Bill Strategic
By Doug Steiger, MPP, Senior Contributor
Don’t hold your breath for a major child welfare bill this Congress, but start prepping for the next Congress…now.
Dysfunction, polarization, the incentives of social media, and reconciliation brinkmanship have replaced regular legislating.
Child welfare bills have usually been bipartisan efforts and under the political radar – exactly the type of legislation that is an endangered species.
Last year’s reauthorization of IV-B was an achievement to be celebrated for overcoming the current environment.
Is it time to give up working to improve federal child welfare law? No, it just makes the task longer and harder.
But now is the time to shape what the next bill will be, perhaps in the next Congress in 2027-2028.
The Near Term Odds: Slim to None
Why are the odds against a child welfare bill happening soon so low? For one, the massive reconciliation bill took a tremendous effort to pass, displacing regular legislative work.
In particular, it left the annual appropriations process behind schedule – which now risks collapse as the Trump Administration stress tests the legal boundaries on government spending.
What about next year? A bit more likely, but bipartisan legislating becomes difficult in election years when both sides become focused on scoring partisan wins.
Unless the child welfare bill is seen as a “must do”, it will be virtually impossible to move given this dynamic.
Perhaps the only viable way it becomes a “must do” at this point is if the Trump Administration demands it.
No bipartisan deal is waiting in the wings — which makes it the moment to start building one.
What’s Ripening for Reform?
Family First turns 10 (!) in 2028, and the Chafee program is also due for an update. Both are natural policy targets.
If Democrats take control of at least one chamber of Congress, it increases the odds of a bipartisan bill moving, either on its own or as part of a larger package, as Family First finally did.
Now is the time for state and local leaders, policy experts, funders, and advocates to set policy priorities, educate Washington on what matters, and recruit champions in both parties.
The new Administration will also shape the field. Once political appointees with child welfare experience are in place at ACF, they will bring their own agenda.
As a result, engaging the Administration proactively should be part of the strategy, since they can take some steps without Congress or be helpful in influencing Congress.
How to Build Momentum?
Lining up sufficient support for a child welfare bill often involves weaving multiple issues together to craft a coalition, rather than relying on one champion to singlehandly propel a bill through Congress.
And if such a coalition isn’t bipartisan, success becomes much more difficult.
The IV-B, reauthorization is a reminder that anniversaries can give legislation momentum, especially when paired with a narrative of continued success and inevitable momentum.
All these ingredients can provide the critical mass of proposals that come together as a coherent comprehensive bill.
What Works to Move the Needle?
Specific things that could start to move the needle:
Picking winning issues; those that invite both bipartisan interest
Finding the sweet spot between high leverage and structural change for effective policy:
Shifting dollars, creating accountability, or changing the balance of power
Highlighting what's actually working and why, to make the case for scaling it
Cultivate bipartisan champions
This often begins with low-stakes engagement, with a long lead-time
Keep educating staff – given high turnover, never assume they know the issues
Bring Members closer to the work through site visits and bipartisan staff trips to local programs, etc
Notch small victories that build the record, including by:
Appropriations or committee report languageTopical hearings
Oversight and GAO requests.
Big child welfare reforms – and we know those are needed – do not happen overnight in Washington.
They are usually the product of years of groundwork, both within the community of advocates and administrators as well as with the political actors in Congress and the executive branch.
What Decision Makers Need to Know:
State, Local, and Tribal Government: Success begets success; lock in reforms at home, document results, and bring Members and staff to see them firsthand.
Funders: Find what works; invest in pilots, data, and coalition infrastructure that can be lifted into federal policy when the window opens.
Advocates: Focus on impact; set clear priorities, cultivate bipartisan champions, build cross-cutting consensus, and bank incremental wins that build momentum.
Hill Staff & Members: Learn the lay of the land; use this time to learn the issues, spot potential political or coalitional conflict early, surface bipartisan areas of agreement, and build the record that future legislation will rest on.
Bringing It All Together
There will be another important child welfare bill…someday. It could be next year – though there are no signs of it yet – or it could come in the next Congress.
People with ideas for change and the passion to work for it should be engaging now to shape the discussion. That’s what will build the stage that everyone involved will perform upon when the legislative process becomes serious.
The best legislative strategies look inevitable; the best strategists know they end up that way through early and sustained effort.
Wonkatizer
Signals to watch, distilled down for you
Harbinger of a Shutdown?
The White House has announced plans to cut $4.9 billion in foreign aid without congressional approval, using an untested maneuver called “pocket rescissions.”
Moves like this are less about foreign aid than about budgetary precedent.
If the Administration can claw back congressionally approved funds, expect similar tactics to be tested on domestic programs.
This escalation also lands just weeks before the Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government, raising the odds of a shutdown showdown.
Worth Tracking
Legal risk. GAO has said pocket rescissions are illegal, but the Administration is pressing ahead. Lawsuits are piling up, likely heading to the Supreme Court.
Political risk. Democrats are signaling they won’t play ball on spending if Republicans back the move, making bipartisan deals harder.
Structural risk. By treating appropriations as a ceiling, the White House can lower undercuts Congress’s core budget authority.
Strategic Implications
For child welfare leaders, the signal is clear: a September shutdown isn’t just possible, it’s increasingly probably.
Agencies reliant on discretionary funding—CAPTA, parts of IV-B, Chafee—should prepare for delays at minimum, and the possibility that cuts or rescissions could be extended into their programs next.
CDC Chaos in Context
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leaderless after the ouster of Director Dr. Susan Monarez—less than a month into her tenure—and the resignation of multiple senior vaccine officials.
Monarez clashed with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccine policy and refused to fire long-time CDC scientists. Within hours of her removal, three top leaders of CDC’s vaccine and infectious disease divisions also walked out.
Why it Matters for Children and Families
You’re already hearing a lot about the broader public health concerns: outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles and whooping cough; reduced trust in pediatricians right as it matters most; conflicting advice for parents; and more.
The chaos at CDC makes these risks more real.
The clearest signal not getting enough focus yet is around the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program.
VFC quietly delivers free or low-cost vaccines to Medicaid- and CHIP-enrolled kids, covering nearly half of all children in the U.S. at some point in their lives.
The catch? VFC draws upon the CDC’s recommendations to determine which shots the program pays for.
If CDC leadership cannot protect and sustain this vaccine access through VFC, millions of families could face delays, shortages, or confusion about which vaccines are available.
Worth Tracking
Program stability. CDC turnover puts routine VFC operations—procurement, distribution, oversight—at risk.
Coverage clarity. Conflicting schedules (AAP vs. CDC) complicate decisions for insurers, state programs, and families.
Uneven access. Low-income children are most exposed if VFC weakens, since private insurance won’t be able to finance backfill access.
Strategic Implications
The collapse of CDC leadership is a profound public health risk.
Keep an eye on the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices meeting later this month, which will be a harbinger of what’s to come.
Stay sharp, Wonks.
Z