Weekly Wonk: TANF At a Crossroads
Plus bipartisan movement on housing policy, and a major retirement
Welcome back to your Weekly Wonk.
It’s officially August recess in Washington, where the intoxicating smell of jet fuel was too enticing for Senators to stick around for marathon maneuvering over nominations.
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Congress will be back for a frenzy of activity in September, as the possibility of a shutdown looms. In the meantime, we’ve got more to add to your recess reading list.
TANF At a Crossroads
Once the centerpiece of welfare reform, the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program has quietly drifted into the shadows of the U.S. safety net.
That’s for structural tensions within the policy, and also because of the growth of focus on policies including the Child Tax Credit and other forms of broader cash assistance.
At the same time, longstanding policy disagreements over whether, where, and why direct economic assistance fits into safety net policy continue to drive debate over new evidence.
This week, we’ve got a lens for you on what’s next for this long-overlooked program.
We have fresh movement on the Hill, for you, too, with a bipartisan housing bill making strides and a bombshell retirement announcement from a prominent child welfare policy leader.
Will Anything Ever Change for TANF?
By Doug Steiger, Child Welfare Wonk Senior Contributor
TANF’s history drives its current challenges, and its obstacles to evolution
If you blinked, you might’ve missed the last time TANF had a serious moment in the political spotlight.
Born in the wake of innovative Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) waivers, TANF initially looked like a success as the welfare caseload melted away, aided by the booming 1990s economy.
With that perceived success came a loss of political interest. The “problem” had been solved.
Since then, cash welfare has rarely commanded attention. SNAP and Medicaid took center stage. TANF faded into the policy background.
The Quiet Block Grant
TANF—Temporary Assistance for Needy Families—is the $16.5 billion per year block grant that replaced the 60-year-old AFDC program back in 1996.
TANF was meant to promote work and reduce dependency, and it gave states great flexibility in how they spend funds in return for meeting work requirements.
But nearly three decades in, TANF has drifted out of the spotlight. With little federal oversight and no inflation adjustment since its creation, the block grant has lost over 40% of its value in real dollars.
Able to largely meet the work participation requirements through smaller caseloads and with cash welfare no longer an important political issue, states have looked to flexible TANF funds as a source to meet other social service needs.
States have repurposed the funding to plug budget holes or support other priorities—child welfare chief among them.
15 states spend one-fifth or more of their TANF funds on child welfare, ranging from 20 percent in Kansas and Virginia to percent almost 80 percent in Arizona (see Table).
States now spend only about one-third of TANF on cash aid or job training programs.
It has been easier to meet the work participation requirements through smaller caseloads than large-scale investments in welfare-to-work programs and increasing cash benefits is rarely popular, even if their value has diminished over the years.
Meanwhile, the safety net shrinks: fewer than one-quarter of poor families receive cash benefits, down from two-thirds under AFDC.
Pilots for Progress?
In 2023, Congress authorized bipartisan pilot projects to test new accountability approaches—less about activity, more about outcomes.
The idea: move beyond process measures like “participated in work activity” to actual results like “got a job” or “increased earnings.”
In November 2024, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) awarded pilots to five states after a competitive process where nearly half the states submitted proposals.
These states – Kentucky, Ohio, California, Maine, and Minnesota – were to spend FY 2025 negotiating the details of their accountability measures.1
But in March, HHS canceled the pilots. The rationale? The original selection criteria weren’t aligned with the Trump Administration’s priorities. Applications were due by August 15, 2025.
We will see if they also select pilots with negotiated employment-related benchmarks. A main difference is the metrics would now emphasize achieving employment goals without families continuing to receive other forms of benefits, such as SNAP and Medicaid, something the previous iteration did not consider problematic.
Congressional Drift—or Drive?
In a rational policy process, Congress would wait for pilot results before reforming TANF. But five years is a long time to wait.
In April, Ways & Means Republicans held a subcommittee hearing on TANF. In May, they introduced the JOBS for Success Act , echoing some of the pilots themes. .
The bill would:
Replace the current work participation requirements with a “universal engagement and case management” requirement for adults on TANF;
Hold states to negotiated benchmarks for employment and earnings for those leaving TANF;
Require TANF funds spent on child care and early childhood programs to be transferred to those programs rather than being spent directly; and,
Mandate that at least 25% of TANF funds support “core” activities of job training, case management, and “work supports.”
This could put pressure on child welfare financing in states where TANF has been an important source of child welfare funding.
Some elements of this bill are similar to pilot proposals selected in 2024.
Is Change Coming?
The House Republicans could have folded TANF provisions into the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), but they didn’t, likely because reconciliation rules might’ve blocked some proposals.
This suggests that TANF reform is not a top-tier priority. But now with the OBBBA done, Ways & Means may turn its attention back to a TANF bill.
In particular, if House Republicans believe “welfare reform” still plays well politically, it may be something that moves next year as the election nears.
But Ways & Means also oversees tax, trade, and Medicare. TANF will be jockeying for floor time.
So far, the Senate has shown little appetite for TANF reform. But if the House acts, that could change.
For those interested in – at long last – significant changes to TANF, keep an eye on two things:
Who gets selected in the re-run of the pilot program with what metrics for success.
Whether the Ways & Means Republicans ramp up work on legislation.
Democrats have been more interested in expanding the child tax credit as a way to support low-income families than revisiting TANF and its issues.
Doug Steiger is a Child Welfare Wonk Senior Contributor and public policy consultant.
He served as a Counselor to the HHS Secretary during the Obama Administration and was a Senate staffer for 12 years
Signals to Watch
Tracking the trends that matter for you.
Longtime Child and Family Policy Leader of Danny Davis Retiring
How the end of an era shapes what’s to come.
U.S. Representative Danny Davis (D-IL) will not seek re-election, retiring at the end of the 119th Congress after 15 terms.
Rep. Davis is the Ranking Member of the U.S. House Ways and Means subcommittee that oversees the child welfare system, safety net programs, and evidence-based home visiting.
Ending an Era
Throughout his career he has led and contributed to numerous significant bipartisan laws reforming child and family policy, including the:
Supporting America’s Children and Families Act (P.L. 118-258)
Jackie Walorski Maternal and Child Home Visiting Reauthorization Act of 2022 (P.L. 117-328)
Supporting Foster Youth and Families Through the Pandemic Act (P.L. 116-260)
Family First Transition Act (P.L. 116-94)
Family First Prevention Services Act (P.L. 115-123)
Fostering Connections to Success and Increasing Adoptions Act (P.L. 110-351)
Ranking Member Davis holds historical continuity from working on most major child and family legislation since the late 90s. This ends an era, not just a chapter.
Who Holds the Hammer?
This news also kicks off subcommittee succession scenario planning. Rep. Judy Chu (D-CA) is next in line of seniority, but that doesn’t automatically translate to a gavel.
Some of this will be a function of which way the midterms break; wins for Democrats would mean more seats (and maybe a Chair’s gavel), while the status quo or expanded seats for Republicans could remove another Democratic seat from the subcommittee.
New subcommittee leadership will matter for a variety of reasons.
It shapes which issues take priority, drives geographic and regional politics, and sets the tone for negotiations.
One Last Time
A leader with such a substantive record of leadership on a policy issue often translates that into a final bipartisan agreement.
It will be worth watching what issues Ranking Member Davis may raise as part of a final legislative legacy.
This could certainly be another reason to bet on the prospects for an older youth bill this Congress…
A Bipartisan Housing Fix for Families?
Movement on cross-partisan priorities, and how they’d impact child welfare.
Last week, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs unanimously voted to advance the Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream to Housing Act of 2025.
The committee’s first bipartisan housing markup in a decade targets the housing crisis by addressing the root causes of instability, not just adding more units.
Key Provisions
Addressing structural barriers to housing affordability, like the federal requirement for manufactured housing to have a permanent foundation;
Reviewing federal construction financing barriers for modular housing;
Expanding affordable housing through rental assistance programs like the Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) and public housing preservation;
Strengthening tenant protections, including a Right to Counsel for eviction cases;
Incentivizing zoning reform to increase affordable housing in high-demand areas; and
Supporting home repairs through programs like the Whole-Home Repairs Act to ensure families can stay in their homes without displacement.
Housing’s Role in Child Welfare
The relevant impacts for child welfare policy are manifold.
Housing instability is a key driver of child welfare system involvement; homelessness and inadequate housing contributed to 13 percent of foster care entries in FY2023.2
Stable housing can also improve family reunification outcomes, giving parents the stability they need to meet reunification goals.
This matters given that 44 percent of foster care exits in FY 2023 were for reunification.3
And the expansion of homelessness prevention programs could serve as a lifeline for the over 15,000 youth aging out of foster care each year, who are disproportionately at risk for homelessness.
What Comes Next
Unanimous advancement out of committee isn’t just movement; it’s a signal of momentum.
Look for these policies to show up in future comprehensive legislative development.
Wrap Up
Thanks for reading the Weekly Wonk. We are grateful for your support and hope it’s useful for your work.
We’ll be back next week, and look forward to sharing some exciting updates about Child Welfare Wonk….
Full disclosure: I was a consultant to HHS for this process.